Analysis: The Effect SCOTUS Striking Down New York’s Gun-Carry Law Would Have

New York has a particularly restrictive gun-carry law, and there’s good reason to believe the Supreme Court is about to strike it down after what the justices said in last week’s oral arguments.

First off, the fact that the Court took this case at all gives some indication they plan to overrule the lower court’s decision to uphold the law. While certainly not impossible, the Court rarely grants an appeal in a case like this one only to uphold the decision being appealed. Then you have the makeup of the Court, which most observers believe is somewhere between a 6-3 and 5-4 divide on expanding Second Amendment protections with Chief Justice John Roberts as the swing vote.

Then, of course, you have what the justices said during oral arguments. Roberts, Neil Gorsuch, Bret Kavanaugh, Samuel Alito, Amy Coney Barret, and Clarence Thomas all asked more critical questions of the law than of the case against it. Though, as is usually the case, their inquires weren’t entirely in one direction.

None of these things are foolproof indicators. The Court isn’t always as predictable as it may seem. Some experts have argued it may strike down New York’s law or could do so in a way that doesn’t create much of a precedent.