In 2015, a group of researchers published a study in the
American Journal of Public Health that was hyped in the press as having proved that instituting new, tougher permitting laws for gun owners in Connecticut cut gun homicide rates by 40 percent. It was a very questionable study, for reasons summed up below. At the end of an article pointing out the study's problems, I predicted that
to a certain class of consumers of news and commentary, thanks to this study and the press it received, it is already a settled fact that "science has proven that tougher background checks reduce gun homicides by 40 percent."
No doubt raised about the study, either here or elsewhere, will likely dislodge that "knowledge." In which case, the study has achieved its goal whether or not its results are replicable or rigorously proved.
Last night, at the first Democratic candidate debate for the 2020 campaign, Sen. Cory Booker (D–N.J.) proved my prophecy correct when he said, "If you need a license to drive a car, you should need a license to buy and own a firearm. And not everybody in this field agrees with that, but in states like Connecticut that did that, they saw 40 percent drops in gun violence and 15 percent drops in suicides."