The Puzzle of Identifying Future Mass Murderers

Writing in The New York Times, psychiatrist Richard Friedman notes that "experienced psychiatrists fare no better than a roll of the dice at predicting violence." He therefore thinks it is unrealistic to rely on the mental health system to identify future mass shooters and stop them before they kill anyone, as Donald Trump has suggested. Yet Friedman argues that "more effective policies might involve gun control, including enhancing background checks and expanding so-called extreme risk protection orders, which would allow law enforcement to temporarily remove firearms from people deemed potentially violent."

Those policies, of course, rely on identifying people who are prone to violence. Is there any reason to think that background checks or "extreme risk protection orders," authorized by so-called red flag laws, will accomplish that task better than "experienced psychiatrists"?

Since past violence is a good predictor of future violence, there is a rational basis for background checks that focus on people convicted of violent crimes, although the significance of such records declines over time. But the current background check system goes far beyond people convicted of violent crimes.

Federal law also bans gun possession by people convicted of drug offenses and other nonviolent felonies; people who have ever been subjected to involuntary psychiatric treatment, regardless of why or of how much time has elapsed; illegal drug users, including cannabis consumers (even in states where marijuana is legal) and people who use medication prescribed for someone else or who use it in a manner not authorized by their own prescriptions; and unauthorized U.S. residents, regardless of whether they have demonstrated any violent tendencies.